As trusted economists and policy advisors to business and government leaders, the Council relies on sound, evidence-based analysis to inform its policy recommendations. Through diligent tracking of BC’s economic performance, we help identify the opportunities and challenges the province must navigate in order to reach its full potential.
Jock Finlayson: Time for a reality check on financial market returns
For investors and savers, today’s financial environment must rank among the least rewarding in half a century, if not longer. In the major advanced economies – the US, Canada, Japan, the UK, and most of continental Europe – the “policy” interest rates set by central banks are at or near all-time lows. This translates into almost non-existent returns for savers who squirrel away money in bank accounts, GICs, and money market funds.
The same is true for the buyers of government bonds – ten-year government bond yields in Canada and the US now hover under 2 percent. With inflation projected to be at or above 2 percent, this means investors in government bonds who hold to maturity are on track for negative real (that is, after-inflation) returns. Despite this counterintuitive picture, there is no lack of demand for the sovereign debt of credit-worthy issuers.
BC More Than Holding Its Own Amid Global Economic Turbulence
At a time of pronounced global uncertainty, BC's economy continues to grow at a decent pace and to outperform many other North American provinces and states. Although there are significant downside risks, BC's economy remains quite resilient with a rapidly shrinking deficit, an increasingly diversified export sector and steady population growth.
Over the 2010-2011 period, BC’s real economic growth averaged 3% - the fourth strongest in Canada and among the top jurisdictions in North America. Although growth will ease over the coming 18 months, this resilience will help to sustain provincial economic activity and keep BC in a relatively strong position even in the face of weaker international conditions.
The Business Council's mid year economic review and outlook anticipates that BC’s economy will grow by 2.0% for 2012 and 2.2% for 2013. Relative to our January outlook there is no change in the forecast for this year, but we have trimmed our growth projection for 2013 due to global turbulence and a slower local housing market.
Canada's Economy in for a Rough Ride
By Jock Finlayson, Executive Vice President and Chief Policy Officer, Business Council of British Columbia
This summer marks the third anniversary of the economic recovery that began following the 2008 global financial crisis and the recession that descended upon much of the world in its wake. By any measure it has been a subdued economic rebound, particularly for many of the “advanced” countries that belong to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
Modest Growth Trajectory Continues for BC
BC Economic Index v11 n2
According to the latest reading of the Business Council's BC Economic Index, the provincial economy continued to grow in the second quarter of 2012. The pace of growth was moderate, with the Index advancing by a comparatively tame 0.2% from the previous quarter.
Boomtown or Ghost Town? The Need to Secure BC's LNG Opportunity
By Greg D'Avignon, President and CEO, Business Council of British Columbia
Even in the best of times, it is extremely rare that a province is presented with an opportunity to develop a new industry with the potential for $50 billion in capital investment over the next five years. Over the longer-term there may be as much as 1.2 million person years of employment, a six-fold increase in annual government royalties and a cumulative total upwards of $1 trillion in additional GDP over the next 30 years. Such are the magnitudes of the economic and social benefits that BC could realize by developing a new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export industry, serving the rapidly expanding Asian markets.
Submission: Provincial Government's Expert Panel on Business Taxation
In response to the provincial government's request for input, the Business Council of British Columbia is pleased to share our views with the Expert Panel on tax measures that could be implemented to strengthen BC’s economy and competitive position as the province shifts from the HST back to the dual PST/GST system. The Panel is familiar with the benefits of the HST, and the many reasons why economists and public finance scholars almost universally see value-added taxes like the HST as an important and useful element in the revenue mix for governments.
Public Sector pensions are sure to be reviewed
By Jock Finlayson, Executive Vice President and Chief Policy Officer, Business Council of British Columbia
With governments across the country addressing budget deficits pushed higher by the 2008-09 recession, attention is turning to the pay levels of employees in the public sec-tor and how these compare with private-sector practices.
Up and Away: The Growth of Municipal Spending in Metro Vancouver
Policy Perspectives v19 n2
As governments around the country struggle to address deficits and manage growing debt loads in the face of often difficult economic circumstances, local government spending is also coming under scrutiny. In British Columbia, the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) has played an important role by shining a periodic spotlight on fiscal developments at the municipal level across BC. This paper builds on work done by CFIB by taking a closer look at municipal spending in the Metro Vancouver context.
Presentation: BC's Economic Outlook
Presented to Economic Development Association of British Columbia by Ken Peacock, Chief Economist, Business Council of British Columbia
2012 Federal Budget: Some Key Issues for Employers
Human Capital Law and Policy v2 n2
The 2012 federal budget tabled by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty on March 29 included a number of measures of interest to Canadian employers. In this issue of Human Capital Law and Policy, we note the key features of the budget from an employer perspective and comment briefly on the implications of the policy directions signaled by the government.
British Columbia Perspectives on a National Energy Strategy (NES)
Environment and Energy Bulletin v4 n2
There was a time when the words “National Energy Plan” would have caused blood pressure to spike across much of Western Canada, which would then have been followed by colorful descriptions of the federal government. This may no longer be the case - and certainly not if many of the West’s leading think tanks, energy companies and provincial leaders have their way.
Manufacturing: An Overlooked but Important Industry in the Lower Mainland
Policy Perspectives v19 n1
Manufacturing is a significant but underemphasized part of the Lower Mainland’s diverse economy. Because the region does not have a single high-profile manufacturing company (such as Boeing in the Seattle area) or a dominant industry cluster, manufacturing is often overlooked. However, the sector deserves attention because it occupies a sizable place in the region’s economy and is a key source of exports to other markets.
2012 Federal Budget: Fiscal Restraint with New Policy Directions
Reflecting the precarious nature of the economic recovery, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty delivered a budget with few new tax measures, a moderate amount of spending restraint, and a plan to return to fiscal balance over the medium term. From our perspective it is a prudent budget that trims spending sufficiently to balance the books by mid-decade, while not tapping on the fiscal brakes too hard. While the federal workforce will be reduced, overall the level of restraint is such that critics will be hard pressed to claim that it will undermine the economic recovery.
Presentation: KPMG 2012 Budget Breakfast
Presentation on the current economic landcape and key budget themes presented at the KPMG 2012 Federal Budget Breakfastby Jock Finlayson, Executive Vice President and Chief Policy Officer, Business Council of British Columbia
Resource Industries Drive Investment Spending Higher in BC
The release of Statistics Canada’s annual Public and Private Investment survey provides information on recent business capital spending and affords a useful glimpse into where and how much BC businesses are planning to invest in the coming year. The latest survey predicts a healthy increase in capital spending in 2012, and confirms that business investment will be a significant economic driver in the province. It also underscores the important role that resource industries and related infrastructure development are playing in the growth of BC’s economy.
2012 BC Budget: Fiscal Caution Amid Economic Turbulence
Against an unsettled external economic backdrop, this week’s provincial budget saw Finance Minister Kevin Falcon reaffirm the government’s commitment to balance the operating budget by fiscal 2013-2014. Meeting this objective – which is mandated by current law – will require downshifting spending growth to about half the pace set during the years preceding the 2008-09 recession. While it featured a few new measures, the dominant theme of Budget 2012 is spending discipline while seeking to maintain core government services. To help address funding pressures across the provincial public sector, resources continue to be reallocated to higher priority areas such as health and education, and efforts to find efficiencies within existing budgets are accelerated.
Slow But Gradually Improving Growth In Store For BC
BC Economic Review and Outlook Feb 2012
BC’s economic growth in 2011 was modest and uneven. The first half of the year was particularly weak, as global equity markets underwent a steep sell-off, the American economy stumbled, the earthquake and tsunami sent Japan into a temporary recession, and financial stresses in the Eurozone escalated. Towards the end of the year, economic conditions in the US improved and, judging by job growth and a handful of other indicators, BC’s economy also appeared to pick up. This helped the province’s real gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by an estimated 2.0% in 2011. BC’s performance was reasonable compared to many other advanced economies, and was in the middle of the provincial growth rankings within Canada.
How Big (and What Is) the 'Green Economy'?
The Challenge of Counting 'Green Jobs' in BC
Environment and Energy Bulletin v4 n1
“Having announced the imminent arrival of the green economy, we’re scrambling to define exactly what that means…”
The above quote neatly sums up the current conundrum about what many people now refer to as the “green” or “clean” economy: although the idea is much celebrated, it is hard to pin down in a satisfactory way. Politicians, media commentators, and non-governmental organizations routinely laud the potential to create thousands of new “green jobs.” Shortly after taking office, US President Barak Obama proclaimed, “As we recover from this recession, the transition to clean energy has the potential to grow our economy and create millions of jobs - but only if we accelerate that transition.” Closer to home, former Premier Gordon Campbell championed the idea of BC as a North American leader in developing and selling clean (carbon-free) energy. British Columbia’s pioneering economy-wide carbon tax, the first of its kind in North America, was linked to an expectation of robust growth in “green” industries and related gains in employment. At the municipal level, political leaders in the City of Vancouver are convinced that the green sector is destined to drive the region’s economy and foster the development of tens of thousands of new, high-paying jobs.
A Snapshot of Incomes in British Columbia
Policy Perspectives v18 n5
While economists often seem preoccupied with somewhat abstract indicators like gross domestic product, productivity and current account balances, arguably the economic variable of most interest to people is income. As defined by Statistics Canada (and similar agencies in other countries), income has two key components: 1) the “market incomes” received by individuals and households from employment, savings, investments, occupational pensions, rents, and entrepreneurial activity; and 2) “government transfers” such as social assistance, pensions, unemployment insurance, and the GST tax credit, which are remitted directly to households by the state.
2011-2012 Holiday Business Hours Survey
The Business Council of British Columbia conducts an annual survey to deterine when members will be open during the holiday season. Thank you to all that participated in the survey.