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What's New

Finlayson Op-Ed: BC economy will soon hit $250 billion (Troy Media)

Posted Jul 2, 2015

A steadily expanding population and ongoing modest economic growth are combining to propel the value of both spending and production in British Columbia to ever higher levels. As a result, we are on the cusp of a significant milestone: by the end of this year or early in 2016, the value of all measured spending and production in B.C. will reach one-quarter of a trillion dollars ($250 billion).

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Trends in Unionization...in Canada and the Wider World

Posted Jun 29, 2015

In many industrial countries the union movement is struggling to adapt to the accelerating pace of economic and technological change and related shifts in business practices, the structure of employment, and demographics. As jobs have migrated from manufacturing, resources and other goods-producing industries toward services, “union density” – the share of the workforce that belongs to a union – has been under downward pressure. The steady growth of cross-border trade and capital flows and the continued proliferation of global supply chains have also created challenges for organized labour. Overall, unions across the developed world have seen their bargaining power diminish, particularly in industry sectors that are exposed to international competition.

Canada and British Columbia have not been immune to these trends. But since the start of the millennium, the labour movement in Canada has been more successful in sustaining its “market share” than its counterparts in many other jurisdictions. The legal and institutional environment affecting union activity differs across the advanced economies, as does the industrial structure, and these factors may partly explain cross-national variations in the role and influence of trade unions within the labour market.

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Lower Canadian Dollar Dampens Cross-Border Shopping

Posted Jun 23, 2015

In early 2013 the Canadian dollar was trading approximately at parity with the American greenback.  Then the Loonie started a gradual descent to its recent level of 81 cents US.  A 20% depreciation of the Canadian dollar vis-à-vis the US currency has significantly changed the relative prices of traded goods and services.  Many exports from BC shipped into the US are suddenly more competitively priced. The opposite is true for imports coming into the province from the US. 

Cross-border shopping effectively amounts to individual consumers doing their own “importing.” With the devalued Canadian dollar adding an additional cost of 20% (and more after paying fees to convert currency), a large portion of the savings on items purchased stateside that existed when the Canadian dollar was at parity has now been eliminated. So the number of British Columbians venturing into the US, unsurprisingly, has diminished.

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D'Avignon Op-Ed: Great News for British Columbia

Posted Jun 17, 2015

Remember June 11and 12, 2015. We will look back on this 24 hour period years from now as a point in which B.C. started to see a material change to its economy. Specifically, it was when some $44 billion worth of investment decisions were made in two separate projects that will strengthen B.C. as a significant player in two global sectors: energy and shipbuilding.

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Finlayson Op-Ed: Canada flirting with recession (Troy Media, Business in Vancouver)

Posted Jun 16, 2015

The latest economic growth report from Statistics Canada casts a cloud over the country’s economic outlook for 2015.  Real gross domestic product (GDP) fell at a 0.6 per cent annualized rate in the first three months of the year, considerably worse than even forecasters of a pessimistic bent were expecting.  Digging into the details, it is clear that the slump in global oil prices is taking a measurable toll on Canada’s energy-centric economy. 

Non-residential investment plunged by 15 per cent in Q1, led by sharp cuts in capital-spending by the oil and gas industry.  In recent years, the energy sector has accounted for more than one-third of all non-residential investment, as well as for roughly one quarter of Canada’s merchandise exports.  So the epic downturn in oil and natural gas markets is dampening overall private sector capital outlays and weighing heavily on Canada’s export receipts.  

Harsh winter weather also played a role in the gloomy Q1 report -- consumer spending came in below consensus, as many Canadians apparently decided to stay indoors.

Economists define a “recession” as two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP.  We are half way there, and some recent economic data signal further softness into the second quarter. 

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